Background events leading up to the disaster

On Wednesday, 5th May, 1915, two days before the disaster,
Churchill held a briefing in the Admiralty's war room.

Unfortunately, First Sea Lord Jacky Fisher and First Lord Winston Churchill were at odds over Churchill's disastrous Dardanelles campaign again. Fisher was harbouring a good deal of resentment with Churchill's name on it, and Churchill himself was off to France that afternoon to participate in a Naval convention which would bring Italy into the war on the side of the Allies.

After that formality, he was to visit the Headquarters of Sir John French, who was going to mount what would ultimately prove to be an equally disastrous offensive on the Aubers Ridge the following Friday, a totally un-necessary diversion for Churchill.

Churchill knew that U-20 was on her way toward Fastnet, as was the LUSITANIA, and the cruiser due to escort her, HMS JUNO.
The U-boat and the cruiser would arrive there ahead of the Cunarder.
HMS JUNO, being of an obsolete design, was particularly vulnerable to U-boat attack, so was immediately recalled to Queenstown.

No message was sent to Captain Turner on the LUSITANIA to advise him that the escort he was expecting had now been cancelled.
This was in case the Germans intercepted the signal.
The danger was there for all to see, but only the danger to the cruiser was apparently realised.

The briefing over, Churchill had lunch with his wife, then hurried to Waterloo station to catch his train.
This left the Admiralty in the charge of First Sea Lord Jacky Fisher, who was aged 75 and sadly by then showing the early signs of senility; and Admiral Oliver, who was deputising for Churchill whilst he was away.

Late that same wednesday afternoon, U-20 sank a small schooner,
the EARL OF LATHOM, off Kinsale.
The Admiralty received notification of the sinking by 21.30 that night.
By midnight, news came in that the British Steamer CAYO ROMANO
had been unsuccessfully attacked off Queenstown (now Cobh).
The only actions that were taken was to update U-20's position on the great map in the London war room, whilst the Naval base at Queenstown issued a general signal which said

"SUBMARINES ACTIVE OFF SOUTH COAST OF IRELAND"

The next day, Thursday May 6th, U-20 sank two cargo ships,
the CANDIDATE and the CENTURION, in the entrance to St. George's Channel, near the Conningbeg lightship.
She also unsuccessfully attacked the White Star liner ARABIC.

By 11.00 on Thursday May 6th, the Admiralty in London
knew of the sinking of the CANDIDATE,
though they didn't see fit to inform the Naval base
at Queenstown, Ireland, for a further 24 hours.
By 03.40 on Friday, May 7th, they also knew the fate of the CENTURION.

Such is the background leading up to the morning of "fateful Friday".
Now that you have this information, we can examine Churchill's "plan to get the LUSITANIA sunk".

For such a "plan" to succeed, the EXACT position of U-20 would have to be known.
The Admiralty had a fairly good appreciation of U-20's whereabouts,
but there is A LOT of ocean off the South Coast of Ireland.
Secondly, the LUSITANIA would have had to be somehow
guided to within a couple of miles of the U-boat without arousing the suspicion of anyone else at the Admiralty and, more importantly,
without anyone arousing the curiosity of LUSITANIA'S Captain.

Thirdly, Churchill would have needed to be absolutely certain
that the U-boat Captain would take the bait.

Given the recent advent of the Q-Ship and the fact that the Germans knew that British Merchant ships now had Admiralty instructions to make a ramming attempt at any U-boat that challenged them,
the U-boat captain could have been equally suspicious of such an apparently easy target.

Lastly, Churchill would have had to fulfil all three criteria in his absence. He did not return from France till the following Monday.

Whilst Churchill had undoubtedly considered the possibility
of such an attack happening and how to use such a catastrophe to his own best political advantage, to physically ENGINEER such a cataclysmic event was, we think, beyond even Churchill's capabilities.

Even if one considers Churchill's penchant for intrigues, and he certainly was actively intriguing against two other cabinet ministers at this time, we do not consider that he could have carried out
such a dastardly plan to fulfilment.
He would then have been directly responsible for the
deaths of 1,201 men, women and children.
The indelible stain of their blood would have been forever on his hands.

The only area where Churchill WAS guilty was in neglecting his duty by "going off on a jolly"
as Fisher called it, and joining in with the subsequent persecution of Captain Turner.
He was not alone in this last action.
Captain Richard Webb of the Admiralty Trade Dept.
and Admiral Oliver concocted the original case against Turner.
They passed their contrived report to Fisher to read.
By the time he'd read it, he was livid, adding in the margin:

"Fully concur! As the Cunard
company would not have employed an INCOMPETENT man, the certainty is absolute that Captain Turner
is not a fool, but a knave! It is my profound hope that Captain Turner will be arrested after the inquiry,
whatever the outcome."
(Fisher always wrote in green ink!)

Once Churchill returned from France and read the report, he added:
"Fully concur! .....We shall pursue the Captain without check!"
(Churchill always wrote in red ink!)

To borrow a phrase: "Who shall we hang so that we don't all hang together?"

The answer, was Captain William Thomas Turner.